“And what’s more, India is on track today to meet and even exceed the ambitious climate goals set at Paris.”

As James pointed out, it’s pretty much BAU scenario. India promised to reduce carbon intensity and increase non-fossil electricity generation from current 33% to 40% by 2030. This would happen probably with or without Paris Treaty.

Btw, this year China’s emissions are predicted to rise 3.5% and India’s 2 %.

“India is on track today to meet and even exceed the ambitious climate goals set at Paris.” India used the flexibility of the Paris structure to set itself laughably soft goals, with no cap on carbon emissions at all, even a remote one like China’s 2030. The only numerical target it set was a decrease in emissions intensity of GDP. India was the strongest advocate in Paris of the anti-colonialist rhetoric of “differentiated responsibilities” ,which you can summarise as “it’s our turn now to trash the playground”.

The reason for this hypocrisy is that at the time the Modi government thought that even with the huge renewables programme, a massive expansion in coal was still needed to meet the promise of universal access to electricity in the countryside. But the coal expansion is turning sour for investors. As in China, there is a glut of unwanted coal plants. Shrinking capacity factors are making many uneconomic. In Gujarat, 10 GW – 10 GW! – of coal plants designed to run on expensive imported coal are on offer to the state government for 3 rupees (plus very large debt bailouts). The government has admitted that no new coal plants should be started beyond the 70 GW nominally under construction: but that isn’t the real number, the country is littered with suspended or abandoned construction sites. The renewables rollout has gone well, but it looks as if the planners gave also underestimated efficiency gains that slow demand growth. At all events, India’s real emissions trajectory,like China’s, is well below its Paris NDC.